The End of an Era—A Different Lens
On the current macro environment, two mainstream views prevail: one sees us entering a great depression; the other sees the closing of one era and the opening of another.
These aren’t just different diagnoses—they reflect fundamentally different mindsets and corresponding strategies.
If you believe we’re in a depression, your response might be: avoid debt, don’t borrow lightly, work harder, play it safe, hoard cash, watch out for scams, resist small bargains, prioritize liquidity, cut expenses.
That logic isn’t wrong—but as I see it, these precautions apply in any economic climate. Even during boom times, ignoring them can quietly ruin a family.
So I lean toward the second view: an era is ending, and a new one is beginning—driven by the natural rhythm of economic cycles.
This means accelerated social mobility—and bigger opportunities. Paradoxically, the better the economy, the less mobile the classes tend to be.
From this perspective, many apparent obstacles may actually be doorways.
Take falling wages and rising job-market difficulty. From an entrepreneur’s point of view, there’s upside: you can hire stronger talent at lower cost. A friend in Xi’an told me he spent a month interviewing dozens of candidates—and landed two outstanding hires at unusually low salaries. That simply wouldn’t have been possible a few years ago.
Respecting Common Sense
Yesterday, I chatted with my elder sister. The word she repeated most was “common sense.”
She cited friends around her: “Many people know common sense—but very few respect it.”
For example: Would a $500-million deal really land on our doorstep? No—that’s common sense.
Yet when someone with seemingly solid credentials invites you for drinks, opens up emotionally, and says, “Let’s partner on this $500-million deal—we’ll earn 1%, so $5 million total. Let’s split it,” how many of us pause, step back, and say, “Wait—this violates every basic principle I know”? Too often, people pour in time, energy, even money—and get scammed.
We’ve all seen such cases.
My sister says she never trusts these “too-good-to-be-true” offers—not unless she fully grasps the underlying logic and is confident she can control the value she contributes. Only then does it become viable.
In real-world business collaborations, “great deals” abound—but viewed from outside the circle, it’s obvious everyone is just drawing pie charts in the air.
Either you’re the client (with your own product), or the vendor (with your own service or fully owned traffic). If you’re neither—or worse, a “third party” or even a “fourth party”—the risk is extremely high.
Truly learning to respect common sense happens in one of two ways: either you suffer several major losses and rebuild yourself from scratch—or you observe countless others’ missteps, up close and repeatedly.
Video Accounts’ Opportunity
At Tencent’s year-end meeting in late January, Pony Ma delivered remarks that struck me as especially insightful.
- He said: “Every business must ask itself two questions: First—can it stay evergreen? New ventures are hard to cultivate. Focus instead on how to sustain and renew what you already own. Second—does it have new sprouts? And crucially, are those sprouts growing from your own branches, not grafted from elsewhere?”
Building something entirely from zero is tough. But within your domain of expertise, small innovations and fresh entry points dramatically increase your odds of breakthrough.
This is exactly the principle I’ve set for myself this year: start from strengths and proven products, deepen core operations, and let growth radiate outward from that center.
- Video Accounts’ edge lies in not chasing others—it leveraged WeChat’s native strengths to pioneer short-video sharing within trusted relationships.
That’s a distinctive trait rooted in WeChat’s ecosystem—rare and valuable. It gives Video Accounts a foundational logic unlike any other short-video or live-streaming platform.
Pony Ma also declared that live-stream e-commerce will be Video Accounts’ top priority in 2024—and it’s ours too.
- Data confirms momentum: In 2023, Video Accounts’ live-stream GMV nearly tripled year-on-year. Supply volume grew 300%; order volume rose 244%.
Among Tencent’s business units, this growth stands out—and the runway remains long.
How to Run Ads—The Right Way
In one of my quietest WeChat groups, I set a simple rule: “No ads—violation results in silent removal.”
A few members ignored it. I enforced the rule promptly—even when the violator had once held senior positions.
To me, such behavior shows disrespect—not just to the group admin, but to every member. And when others disregard your boundaries, you owe them no “face-saving.”
Also, frankly—the ad rarely works. Worse, it cheapens your credibility and costs you far more than it gains.
I’m not anti-advertising. Over my career, departments I’ve led have spent over ¥1 billion on ads. I still hold advertising in high regard.
We inevitably need to promote things—but how matters. Do it poorly, and you lose trust, attention, and opportunity.
Three principles guide us: Respect the rules. Be useful. Spend wisely.
First: Respect the rules.
Major paid-ad platforms operate on mature frameworks: compliance with advertising law, compelling creative, continuous iteration.
Communities are no different. Any vibrant group treats its rules with reverence—otherwise, it dies overnight.
Second: Be useful.
Before posting an ad, ask: Does this help the audience? How? If you can’t articulate clear value, don’t post. People ignore what doesn’t serve them.
Whether something is useful to others is the essential gatekeeper for whether to advertise at all.
Even before your product is ready, hold off on promotion. Chances are, it won’t land.
Third: Spend wisely.
“Free” is almost always the most expensive option—unless someone owes you a massive favor. Free traffic is usually marginal, fragmented, and low-intent.
Yes, many hustle daily for scraps of free reach—and some even profit. But “spend wisely” doesn’t mean spending recklessly. It means investing after the first two principles are met—to reach the right users, not just more users.
Self-Awareness
Dr. Li shared many personal struggles with me—most aligned closely with what I’d already observed.
For instance: One setback knocks him off course, draining his motivation to continue.
Or: He easily slips into anxiety.
…
I told him: “Your self-assessment is actually quite objective. Recognizing your own blind spots is rare—and valuable.”
He replied: “Yeah—but it doesn’t seem to help much.”
I said: “Awareness is the first step—and arguably the prerequisite—for growth. That’s self-reflection. Many people never reach this stage. Others misdiagnose themselves. That is the real problem.”
Pinduoduo’s User Psychology
I updated my phone apps—and noticed something interesting.
Pinduoduo’s logo text is arguably the most user-savvy of all. While competitors ran generic “New Year Goods Festival” campaigns, Pinduoduo tapped deeper insight: users’ real fear isn’t missing deals—it’s not getting shipments.
So “Normal Shipping” speaks directly to that anxiety—and resonates more strongly.
