There’s No “Big Opportunity”
A former boss recently reached out to talk through his next venture. After several deep conversations, we landed on a new direction—one that aligned tightly with his background, resources, and current life stage.
His original plan? Build a publicly listed company. But after years of trial and error—and especially given today’s harsh funding climate—he realized that path was nearly impassable.
Yet here’s what’s remarkable: earlier this year, with nothing more than an idea and his reputation, he raised seed funding at a $180M valuation. His personal brand was the pitch.
Over the year, though, he came to tell me plainly: “There aren’t that many big opportunities—and chasing them is exhausting.”
So he chose to lower his expectations—and those of investors. His new goal? A small, beautiful company: one that earns a few million dollars annually. That’s enough. It’s sustainable. Low pressure. Low risk.
And let’s be honest: even if such a company went public, founders rarely cash out meaningfully. Investors get first dibs on liquidity; founders hold illiquid stock.
The key shift? From aiming for a $1B company to building a $10M one. Once that mental ceiling drops, your list of viable projects explodes—and so does your sense of possibility and peace.
How to Choose a Project
This week, several friends and ex-colleagues visited—most now founders themselves. All have launched ventures over the past few years. Almost none succeeded.
Making things work right now is hard.
The most common question across these talks? How do you pick the right project?
My answer boils down to four principles: Familiarity, Light Assets, Leverage, and Efficiency.
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Familiarity
Stick to what you know and do well. If you’re drawn to something unfamiliar, don’t jump in—first become an expert fast. Only then begin execution. Curiosity isn’t a license to act. -
Light Assets
Avoid heavy capital commitments—factories, equipment, leased spaces. “Light” doesn’t mean zero assets; it means minimal fixed costs and lean teams. The fewer physical assets and people you need to launch, the safer your runway. -
Leverage
Distinguish companies by whether leverage is core to their profit engine—or just decorative. Real leverage multiplies output without linear cost increases: network effects, platform dynamics, scalable content, or capital-efficient distribution. If leverage isn’t baked into the model, it’s not defensible. -
Efficiency
High efficiency → high margin → real competitiveness. If your own operations feel sluggish, margins will shrink—and so will your ability to adapt. This week, I shut down or restructured every initiative failing even one of these four tests.
I Planted a Tree
I recently had tympanic membrane repair surgery at Peking Union Medical College Hospital. The doctor instructed me not to blow my nose or sneeze—for two to three months.
I asked why—especially since I’d caught a cold.
He smiled and said: “Think of the surgery like planting a sapling in your ear. It needs time to take root and grow strong. Every sneeze is like a typhoon hitting that tiny tree—plus an earthquake. Few saplings survive repeated hits.”
That image stuck. It made the logic visceral, memorable, humane.
The surgeon was a professor—a true expert. And his gift? Explaining profound things simply, vividly, respectfully.
Making Money Can’t Be Rushed
A former colleague asked: How do we know if this project will work?
Another added: Is there any fast way to make money?
I paused. Then said: The more urgently you chase profit, the more likely you are to lose it. That mindset itself is a red flag. If you’re in that state, pause—and take a job instead.
Yes, going back to employment after founding is hard. But launching while emotionally frantic is harder—and far riskier.
Also: the most reliable ways to earn are usually the ones you already know. There’s no secret shortcut. Anyone promising one is selling you a story—not a solution.
The Problem with Research
A former executive came by, excited about launching a new venture.
Me: “What’s the idea?”
Him: “It’s like that company our ex-colleague joined—the one doing well with a small team.”
Me: “What’s their exact business model? How many people? Who handles enrollment? What channels do they use? How many leads per month? What’s their conversion rate? Why is their model defensible? What policy risks exist—and how do they mitigate them?”
He gave vague, secondhand answers—and didn’t even know their product pricing.
I joked: “You financially independent folks really run companies on vibes, huh?”
Two problems keep showing up in competitive research:
- Skipping the work: Relying on hearsay or surface-level summaries instead of digging deep.
- Delegating the wrong thing: Handing foundational research to interns or junior staff—then treating their slides as truth.
Both are forms of laziness. And both feed organizational arrogance.
A Formula for Higher Success Rates
There are two proven paths to raising your odds:
First, try more—cheaply. For any idea meeting basic criteria, build the smallest possible MVP. If it gains traction, scale. If not, kill it fast. That was our approach for the first three years—and it helped us identify the few projects worth sustaining long-term.
Second, choose better and wait longer. Get the selection right—then invest patience, not pressure. Iterate relentlessly on operations, growth loops, and details.
But “choosing right” is deceptively hard. Before you start, your information is always incomplete and biased. You can’t predict perfectly—you can only improve your judgment. And judgment improves only through deliberate effort: field interviews, primary research, pattern recognition, and deep reflection.
The Growth Inflection Point
When does a product cross into sustainable growth?
Simple test: Natural new-user retention > churn.
That is, organic acquisition (word-of-mouth, SEO, virality) replaces lost users without paid support.
Once that threshold is crossed, then consider paid acquisition. Before it? Paid spend acts as negative leverage—it amplifies waste, not growth.
Becoming Wealthy Requires Learning
In Breaking Bad, drug lord Gus Fring says: “Anyone can be poor. It’s effortless. Just follow your instincts.”
The unspoken corollary: Becoming wealthy requires unlearning instinct—and learning deliberately.
Learning what?
Mindsets and frameworks that shape real wealth: asset vs. expense thinking, opportunity cost, independent analysis, deep learning habits, and intelligent leverage.
Few grasp their power—and fewer still internalize them. Why? Because knowing the definitions isn’t enough. These ideas must be lived: either absorbed early through environment, or forged later through cycles of gain and loss. Only then do they settle into intuition.
A friend once told me: “Changing a family’s trajectory takes three generations.”
I believe him.