This Bull Market | Yao Jingang

The Current Stock Market

Over the past two weeks, the stock market has been blazing hot. Even at casual dinners with friends, conversations inevitably turn to it. Below are some key takeaways from recent discussions and reflections.

This bull run arrived fast—and consensus is forming: it’s a classic “fast bull” market. After several months of explosive momentum, it will likely settle into a more sustainable, “slow bull” phase.
It’s a policy-driven bull market: the government is using equities as a channel to put money directly into people’s pockets—boosting consumption and reviving the economy.
Crushing deflation is the strategic intent behind this move. That’s the bedrock logic.
Why this route? Two major reasons:
First, the old fiscal model is breaking down. Revenue from real estate and related industries once accounted for up to 50% of local government income. But that stream has dried up steadily over the past few years—and can no longer sustain public finances. A critical shift is now underway: from “real-estate-based fiscalism” to “equity-based fiscalism.” Think asset-packaging for IPOs, or state-owned enterprise mergers and restructurings. For equity-based fiscalism to work, the stock market must first be vibrant and highly liquid.
Second, money flowing through the stock market reaches households faster and more directly than traditional channels—and because it feels “easier” to obtain, its stimulus effect on spending is stronger.
By contrast, conventional tools—like massive infrastructure spending or corporate lending—are less effective right now. Take small businesses: even if they secure loans, many don’t know how—or where—to deploy that capital. That transmission channel is currently clogged.
So overall, both policy intent and public sentiment have already lit the fuse.
We’re still in Week One—very early days. This truly is a rare bull market.
That said, even bulls carry risk. Borrowing, margin trading, and leverage amplify exposure—especially in the mid-to-late stages. Catching this “sky-high fortune” requires clear risk awareness—and personalized strategies.
In the book Stop-Loss, there’s a method called “speculation”—but not in the gambling sense. Nor is it cold, engineering-style analysis. True speculation means rationally scanning the future, systematically mapping risks, clarifying your decision principles—and acting with conviction.
A core insight: most people lose in the market because their mental operating system is fundamentally misaligned with the market’s own logic. To improve odds, you must train your intuitive system to mirror the market’s transactional rhythm.
On stock selection: play it safe with blue-chip leaders; go aggressive with oversold or momentum stocks.
One final note: knowing the theory—and even the tactics—doesn’t guarantee truth. If you’ve heard it too, that information has likely already lost its edge.

On Running

During National Day holiday, I skipped travel plans. Instead, my wife, our child, and I returned to my hometown in Huairou—a mountain village.

I love it here mainly for three things: few people, deep quiet, and pristine nature.

Especially since I resumed running this year, I’ve grown even fonder of the mountains. The rural roads are perfect: light traffic, almost no pedestrians. Mornings or evenings? It’s basically my private track.

On October 3rd, I started running at 4:15 p.m., following a mountain road for 20 kilometers. The first half was all uphill—slow, steady effort. At the halfway point—around the mountainside—I turned back. Total elevation gain: 455 meters.

On the descent, night fell fast. No streetlights. Temperatures dropped sharply. So I picked up pace. Stars filled the sky. Alone in the dark, feet pounding the road—it felt electric.

With a few kilometers left, I surged—accelerating all the way home. Exactly 20 km. Done.

I restarted running in June. Three months in, progress is visible—not just in pace or endurance, but in how deeply I enjoy it. Last week, I even ran 10 km to meet friends for dinner—just because it felt right.

Lately, though, I’ve also realized: moving from beginner to elite isn’t about one breakthrough. It’s sustained learning, relentless practice, and layered mastery. Going from entry-level → professional → world-class—that’s where the richest human experience lives.

Running demands little beyond patience—and almost nothing else. As one runner put it: “Force won’t create miracles. Patience will.”

Can You Still Buy Property?

As of today, housing has officially become a consumer good—not an investment vehicle. This shift happened within just a few years.

“Consumer good” means: stop thinking about appreciation. Stop expecting returns.

Why? Because in most places, residential property simply no longer holds investment value—not homes, not shops, not office buildings, not factories.

The root cause? Urbanization has plateaued, and birth rates are falling.

So the verdict is clear: unless you need a home right now, don’t buy. Skip seaside condos. Skip vacation properties. Don’t speculate.

The only exception? Ultra-luxury homes in Tier-1 cities—priced above ¥100 million. For that tiny cohort, price sensitivity vanishes. What matters is scarcity: irreplaceable location, unique resources, unreplicable access. That scarcity—not the number on the deed—is the sole source of investment value.

The Power of Manifestation

Recently, I had two conversations with a well-established mind-body-spirit IP who works in religious real estate and “Great Sinology.”

One term stood out: manifestation. A fascinating concept.

Manifestation is the process of turning inner intentions—thoughts, feelings, focused desire—into tangible reality.

Its core premise: your outer world mirrors your inner state.

By consciously guiding your conscious mind, subconscious patterns, and emotional tone, you can shape outcomes—not magically, but causally.

It sounds esoteric—but it holds practical value. Key elements include:

Clarity: Know exactly what you want—and hold that focus consistently.
Feeling: Emotion is the primary carrier. You must feel as if your goal is already fulfilled—as if it’s real now.
Subconscious imprint: When feeling and thought align deeply enough, they embed in your subconscious. From there, they begin expressing outward—often in ways you couldn’t plan or predict.
Positive alignment: Doubt, fear, or resentment disrupt the process. They feed the subconscious with signals it then reflects back—unwanted results.
Letting go of control: Manifestation isn’t forceful striving. It’s trusting and embodying the outcome—then allowing your subconscious to navigate the “how.”

For ordinary people, manifestation cultivates intentionality: sharper goal-setting, greater self-agency, healthier relationships, lower anxiety, and deeper confidence.

Crucially, it’s not passive waiting. It’s active inner stewardship—calibrating your internal state so your external world follows suit.

My conversation partner offered a vivid metaphor: manifestation is like making a call to the universe. Simple. Direct. And strangely accurate.